Why I believe Android won’t ever overtake the iPhone within the US

If I am trustworthy, I’ve truly been placing this story off for some time. It is an apparent matter, but it surely’s additionally a landmine, given how rapidly individuals are likely to take sides within the iPhone versus Android battle. The truth that some individuals even consider it as a battle is miserable, actually, contemplating that nobody needs to be deeply invested in issues that finally exist solely to show a revenue. It is one of many causes I am not connected to professional sports activities, both — I can not root for gamers who in all probability aren’t from my metropolis, and would transfer to a different one in a heartbeat if somebody paid them sufficient.

I do have an opinion on the trajectory of the smartphone market nonetheless, significantly within the US. It appears to me that the iPhone will not be solely dominant in its residence turf, however poised to carry that place indefinitely. Except a number of components converge directly, that’s.

The momentum downside

A fast go searching

The most important consider Apple’s favor is the large distinction in marketshare versus even its closest competitor. Based on Statcounter knowledge, Apple managed an estimated 58.42% of the US smartphone market in September 2025. Samsung ranked a distant second at 22.43%, regardless of extensive distribution and large advertising and marketing campaigns, together with high-cost press occasions yearly. Corporations like Motorola, Nothing, OnePlus, and Google are preventing for Samsung’s scraps, by comparability.

Extra importantly, this hole by no means appears to shrink in any significant approach. You will notice exceptions — like October 2024, when Apple dipped to 51.19%, and Google shot as much as 14.51% — however issues inevitably appear to degree off, as soon as once more leaving Apple effectively over the 50% mark. It is exhausting to overstate how uncommon that degree of dominance is. You would possibly consider one or two auto corporations as “proudly owning” the US, however in 2024, market chief GM managed simply 17% of new car sales.

The gist is that there is a variety of floor for Apple’s rivals to cowl, even when they someway pull all the suitable strikes. And one of many issues that makes Android interesting — the liberty to modify telephone manufacturers at will — can also be undermining it. Each Android model has its personal take, so there are various ranges of high quality, and there is no one machine you possibly can level to as “the” iPhone various. Google Pixel and Samsung Galaxy S telephones are about as shut as you get. Informal consumers will not be conscious of all of the Android manufacturers on the market, solely what their provider or native big-box retailer is promoting. Do not forget that it is solely a minority of us who observe the tech trade carefully.

Apple has additionally made good strategic use of its earnings. Each main metropolis now has at the very least one Apple Retailer, and you may’t deny the benefit of getting a handy showcase and assist system the place most telephone consumers reside. As of this writing, there are simply seven Google Shops within the US, and 4 Samsung areas. Most Android telephones are offered by means of third events with various levels of assist and promotion.

Probably the most savage use of Apple’s cash has been constructing out a {hardware} and software program ecosystem that clients are reluctant to go away. In the event you’ve obtained an Apple Watch, that buy turns into ineffective the second you turn to Android. And Apple merchandise that do not require an iPhone nonetheless are likely to function higher in tandem with one, similar to AirPods, an Apple TV, or a Mac. Many People are accustomed to iMessage’s social divide — non-Apple customers are typically handled as poor, or ruining group chats, if solely by the shallowest or most immature of individuals.

Corporations like Google and Samsung have tried to duplicate this ecosystem, but at most it appears to be deterring extra individuals from defecting. Switching platforms is an costly proposition lately. If I have been to purchase into Android once more, I might in all probability wish to personal each a Pixel 10 and a Garmin Venu 4 — that is practically $1,600 out the door earlier than worrying about issues like my HomePod minis.

What would it not take to shift that momentum?

Dreaming the inconceivable dream

The usual reply is a product with an plain benefit that may’t be simply copied. That’s, in spite of everything, the factor that obtained the ball rolling for Apple. The primary iPhone was radically higher than different smartphones on the time, the dearth of 3G however. Corporations that could not adapt have since shrunk to a shadow of their former selves, like Nokia and Motorola, or left the market completely, as with RIM.

It is not inconceivable to think about a future through which Apple stays (comparatively) stagnant whereas one other enterprise strikes in for the kill. The iPhone 17feels incremental, and even the primary foldable iPhone is more likely to be enjoying catch-up. In the meantime, the corporate has been lagging behind in promised AI options. I do not imagine that Android’s Gemini assistant needs to be the principle purpose to purchase a telephone. However the extra options Google provides, the broader the gulf turns into. I might moderately speak to Gemini than Siri any day relating to getting issues carried out.

With Apple’s monolithic standing, a radically modern product in all probability will not be sufficient. The corporate has tens of billions of {dollars} in money reserves, so have been the iPhone to flop one 12 months, it could be capable to trip out the storm and return in a 12 months or two with an overhauled design. Solely a string of flops could be sufficient to push the corporate right into a weak place.

To grab substantial floor from Apple, any Android telephone maker would additionally want to ascertain itself as that pure iPhone various I discussed earlier. That features not simply technical innovation, however a greater semblance of the assist and intensive ecosystem Apple affords. Google and Samsung might probably obtain that, and arguably have, in some respects. Neither appears all that eager about constructing out a large retail presence, although, a lot much less competing in each machine class Apple does.

Maybe it is no surprise. Neither Google nor Samsung want the American market as a lot as Apple does. Google’s primary enterprise is promoting, not {hardware} — it makes cash off of iPhone and Android customers alike, a lot in order that it pays Apple billions yearly to stay the default search possibility in Safari. Samsung depends on {hardware}, but it surely’s the main smartphone maker worldwide, and has many different companies to shore it up. These vary from show and chip manufacturing to shipbuilding. Whereas it could be a catastrophe if its telephone enterprise imploded, it would not be a deadly one. For both company, small features right here and there could also be all they care about.

I am genuinely curious as to what issues will appear like a decade from now. My guess is that Apple will nonetheless be on high of the telephone recreation, but we’re getting into a significant transition interval the place smartphones themselves would possibly ultimately lose out, changed by superior AR glasses. Being on high of telephones in 2035 could possibly be much like being on high of MP3 gamers, and I will guess you possibly can’t keep in mind the final time you noticed a stranger with an iPod.